Economic Decision-Making During Times of Uncertainty
By Robert E. Rubin
In a thoughtful conversation hosted by the Council on Foreign Relations, Robert Rubin shared insights from his new book "The Yellow Pad: Making Better Decisions in an Uncertain World." Drawing from his extensive career spanning Wall Street, the White House, and beyond, Bob discussed his probabilistic approach to decision-making that he developed during his years running Goldman Sachs' arbitrage department and later applied to major policy decisions as Treasury Secretary under President Clinton.
Throughout the discussion with Michael Froman and Sylvia Mathews Burwell, Bob emphasized the importance of carefully weighing probabilities and potential outcomes, even when dealing with seemingly low-risk scenarios. He applied this framework to current challenges facing policymakers, from AI regulation to U.S.-China relations, while acknowledging the inherent complexity and uncertainty in today's geopolitical landscape. On the economic front, Bob noted that out of 16 key factors he tracks, several point to a material chance of recession, though he stressed the difficulty of making precise predictions in what he considers one of the most uncertain environments in recent memory.
