Robert Rubin on Whether the U.S. Should Want China to Prosper
Q&A with Bob Davis and Robert E. Rubin
In a wide-ranging conversation, former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin offered a thoughtful perspective on U.S.-China relations that challenges current Washington orthodoxy. While acknowledging the serious challenges China faces – from demographic issues to housing bubbles and confidence problems – Bob maintains that a stable and prosperous China remains in America's best interest, even in today's more adversarial relationship. He advocates for attempting to rebuild a more constructive partnership with China based on common interests, while still protecting U.S. national security. On the investment front, Bob advises steering clear of China for now, except for specific sectors like healthcare that might be less affected by political intervention.
Drawing from his extensive experience during the Clinton administration, including working closely with Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji during the Asian Financial Crisis and WTO negotiations, Bob reflects on the evolution of U.S.-China economic relations. He pushes back against critics of engagement, arguing that China's economic rise was driven more by its work ethic and innovation than unfair practices. Looking ahead, Bob expresses concern about the current trajectory of U.S.-China relations and emphasizes the importance of maintaining dialogue, even through informal "Track Two" exchanges. While he sees the potential for conflict as "almost inconceivable" given the devastating consequences, he acknowledges that serious observers worry about this possibility – underlining the urgency of finding a more constructive path forward.
