Robert Rubin: The ‘Soft Landing’ Could Easily Turn Hard
By Robert E. Rubin for The Wall Street Journal
Robert Rubin challenges the prevailing optimistic view of the U.S. economy in 2024, arguing that conventional economic analysis overlooks significant political, societal, and geopolitical risks that could derail markets. These risks include the potential for a prolonged government shutdown, uncertainties surrounding the 2024 election (particularly regarding Trump's potential return to power), congressional dysfunction preventing action on critical issues like climate change and federal debt, and international conflicts in Gaza, Ukraine, and elsewhere that could trigger economic shocks.
While Bob maintains that the U.S. remains a sound long-term investment due to its potential for political recovery, he warns that investors and policymakers must account for these broader risks rather than focusing solely on traditional economic indicators. Failure to acknowledge these challenges could lead to overpriced markets and subsequent corrections, potentially threatening both economic and investment success.
