The Yellow Pad
Making Better Decisions
in an Uncertain World
In 1958, as a college sophomore, Robert E. Rubin took a class that changed his life. The class was introductory philosophy, and the professor, Raphael Demos, instilled in his students an idea that was simple yet profound: There is no such thing as certainty. For Rubin, this led over time to a critically important question: How can we make sound decisions in a fundamentally uncertain world?
The Yellow Pad contains a former Treasury secretary’s approach to economic policymaking; a former Goldman Sachs senior partner’s approach to personal investing and understanding risk; a former director of the National Economic Council’s approach to managing people in both private- and public-sector organizations; and much more. Yet despite his lifetime of experiences, Rubin remains refreshingly open-minded, interested in exploring ideas rather than promoting ideologies. With its combination of wisdom and relevance, this book is an essential guide for anyone looking to make better decisions in life, work, and public policy.
While serving in some of the most significant roles in markets, business, and government, Rubin has grappled with that question. Time and again, when faced with a high-stakes decision, he turned to his most trusted tool: a simple yellow legal pad. Rubin’s yellow pad (or more recently, his iPad) became an expression of a larger decision-making philosophy that has both lasted and shaped a lifetime. Here, Rubin lays out that philosophy with depth and detail, and presents a compelling intellectual framework for confronting some of the most difficult issues we face today.
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Media
I Don’t Have the Secret to Making Hard Decisions, but I Do Have A Yellow Note Pad
The New York Times | May 14, 2023
By Robert E. Rubin
Not long after my appointment as director of President Clinton’s National Economic Council in 1993, a letter arrived in my West Wing office. I immediately recognized the writer’s name: Mrs. Dorothy Collins.
Robert Rubin Warns That the U.S. Is Failing to Face Its Problems
The Wall Street Journal | May 13, 2023
By Emily Bobrow
In a new book, the former Treasury secretary offers lessons on risk, luck and the importance of learning from mistakes.
Reviews
“With intellectual heft and plenty of actionable items, this is a smart prescription for better thinking.”
Praise for The Yellow Pad
“As Secretary of the Treasury in the last decade of the 20th century, Robert Rubin presided over what we can now see as an unusually prosperous and stable era in American life. Now, drawing on his years in government and in the private sector, Rubin offers us an astute, valuable, and illuminating guide to decision-making and, in a sense, to life itself in an uncertain world."
Jon Meacham
Author of And There Was Light: Abraham Lincoln and the American Struggle
“Nobody has been in the middle of more economic policy decision-making for longer than Bob Rubin. Readers are lucky to get his great perspectives and principles in his new book, The Yellow Pad, and are sure to find them useful as they face their own tough choices.”
Ray Dalio
Founder of Bridgewater Associates, author of Principles
“Robert Rubin’s exuberant praise for a classics professor who taught him how to think about thinking in a world of uncertainty is a powerful reminder of the importance of studying humanities. This engaging, eloquent, and accessible work provides an invaluable guide not only for decision makers in government and business but for all of us in our daily lives.”
Doris Kearns Goodwin
Author of Leadership in Turbulent Times
“From the wisdom he learned in a college course in philosophy to the lessons he picked up during a lifetime in government and banking, Bob Rubin has crafted a powerful tool for dealing in a world of uncertainty. This book explains how to use ‘probabilistic thinking.’ It’s a very interesting idea, and also one that’s useful for business and for life. I wish I’d known this years ago!”
Walter Isaacson
Professor of History at Tulane University, author of The Code Breaker
"In The Yellow Pad, Bob Rubin makes the compelling case for pragmatism over emotion and ideology, and offers practical advice for everyone who has to make difficult decisions in a complicated world."
Anne Applebaum
Author of Twilight of Democracy: The Seductive Lure of Authoritarianism
"The Yellow Pad offers an outstanding collection of lessons learned during a lifetime of leadership on Wall Street and in Washington. It is indispensable for navigating challenges and making decisions in difficult times."
Ken Chenault
Chairman and Managing Director of General Catalyst, former Chairman and CEO of American Express