The Yellow Pad by Robert E. Rubin

The Yellow Pad

by Robert Rubin

Making Better Decisions in an Uncertain World

Robert Rubin, former secretary of the Treasury and co-chairman of Goldman Sachs, shares thoughts on decision-making developed over almost six decades in markets, business, government, and politics, and offers readers an astute and original guide for navigating uncertain times.

  • “As Secretary of the Treasury in the last decade of the 20th century, Robert Rubin presided over what we can now see as an unusually prosperous and stable era in American life. Now, drawing on his years in government and in the private sector, Rubin offers us an astute, valuable, and illuminating guide to decision-making and, in a sense, to life itself in an uncertain world."

    Jon Meacham
    Author of And There Was Light: Abraham Lincoln and the American Struggle

  • “Robert Rubin’s exuberant praise for a classics professor who taught him how to think about thinking in a world of uncertainty is a powerful reminder of the importance of studying humanities. This engaging, eloquent, and accessible work provides an invaluable guide not only for decision makers in government and business but for all of us in our daily lives.”

    Doris Kearns Goodwin
    Author of Leadership in Turbulent Times

  • "In The Yellow Pad, Bob Rubin makes the compelling case for pragmatism over emotion and ideology, and offers practical advice for everyone who has to make difficult decisions in a complicated world."

    Anne Applebaum
    Author of Twilight of Democracy: The Seductive Lure of Authoritarianism

  • “Nobody has been in the middle of more economic policy decision-making for longer than Bob Rubin. Readers are lucky to get his great perspectives and principles in his new book, The Yellow Pad, and are sure to find them useful as they face their own tough choices.”

    Ray Dalio
    Founder of Bridgewater Associates, author of Principles

  • “From the wisdom he learned in a college course in philosophy to the lessons he picked up during a lifetime in government and banking, Bob Rubin has crafted a powerful tool for dealing in a world of uncertainty. This book explains how to use ‘probabilistic thinking.’ It’s a very interesting idea, and also one that’s useful for business and for life. I wish I’d known this years ago!”

    Walter Isaacson
    Professor of History at Tulane University, author of The Code Breaker

  • "The Yellow Pad offers an outstanding collection of lessons learned during a lifetime of leadership on Wall Street and in Washington. It is indispensable for navigating challenges and making decisions in difficult times."

    Ken Chenault
    Chairman and Managing Director of General Catalyst, former Chairman and CEO of American Express

  • "With intellectual heft and plenty of actionable items, this is a smart prescription for better thinking."

    Kirkus Reviews

Books

The Yellow Pad

Robert Rubin, former secretary of the Treasury and co-chairman of Goldman Sachs, shares thoughts on decision-making developed over almost six decades in markets, business, government, and politics, and offers readers an astute and original guide for navigating uncertain times.

The Yellow Pad by Robert E. Rubin

In an Uncertain World

With a compelling and candid voice and a sharp eye for detail, Rubin portrays the daily life of the White House-confronting matters both mighty and mundane--as astutely as he examines the challenges that lie ahead for the nation.

In an Uncertain World by Robert E. Rubin

Recent News

By Robert E. Rubin

January 17, 2025

My advice to those new in government work is to approach the job with modesty. While government can benefit from a business perspective, government can’t and shouldn’t be run like a business. This is in part because government work requires skills and knowledge one doesn’t acquire in business.

By Robert E. Rubin and Kenneth I. Chenault

July 8, 2024

The two of us have been involved in business, government and policy for many years, with more than a century of experience between us. We’ve worked with elected officials and business leaders across the ideological spectrum. And we believe a straightforward assessment of Mr. Trump’s economic policy agenda — based on his public statements and on-the-record interviews, such as the one he recently conducted with Time magazine — leads to a clear conclusion. When it comes to economic policy, Mr. Trump is not a remotely normal candidate. A second Trump term would pose enormous risks to our economy.

About Robert E. Rubin

Robert E. Rubin served as the 70th United States Treasury Secretary from 1995 to 1999, after serving as the first director of the White House National Economic Council. In these roles, he helped achieve the first federal budget surplus in a generation, address international financial crises, and resolve a debt-ceiling standoff, among much else. 

Rubin is the author of In an Uncertain World: Tough Choices from Wall Street to Washington, a New York Times bestseller, and The Yellow Pad: Making Better Decisions in an Uncertain World. He spent twenty-six years at Goldman Sachs, rising to co-senior partner, and

was a senior counselor and board member at Citigroup. He currently serves as counselor to the independent investment advisory firm Centerview Partners, as co-chairman emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, and as chair of the Local Initiatives Support Corporation. 

Rubin is a founder of The Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution, which promotes broad-based economic growth. A former member of the Harvard Corporation, he graduated from Harvard summa cum laude and from Yale Law School.

  • "For our country to succeed economically, our market-based system must function alongside strong, effective government. Strong, effective government, in turn, requires a functioning democratic process."

    "H.R. 1 and H.R. 4 would reform our democracy. They'd also help our economy."
    Washington Post (March 17, 2021)

  • "Internalizing the core tenet of Professor Demos’s teaching — weighing risk and analyzing odds and trade-offs — was central to everything I did professionally in the decades ahead in finance and government."

    "Philosophy Prepared Me for a Career in Finance and Government,"
    New York Times (April 30, 2018)

  • "Some people I’ve encountered in various phases of my career seem more certain about everything than I am about anything."

    "In an Uncertain World: Tough Choices from Wall Street to Washington,"
    p. xii

  • "The only place people find fulfillment is within themselves. And too often, that's the last place they look."

    "In an Uncertain World: Tough Choices from Wall Street to Washington,"
    p. 64

  • "Moments after being sworn in as Treasury Secretary in 1995, I stood in the Oval Office to advise the president on how to address the threat posed to us by the unfolding economic crisis in Mexico, an experience repeated two years later during the Asian financial crisis. I know what it's like to recommend complex responses with no certainty of success."

    "Bringing the Economy Back to Life,"
    New York Times (April 17, 2020)

  • "We have an imperative need to address our unsustainable longer-term fiscal trajectory with sound economic policies. Few elected officials want to face this fact, but, at the very least, they should not make matters worse."

    "The Republican tax plan’s five worst dangers,"
    Washington Post (November 15, 2017)

  • "The refundable child tax credit is not inflationary if paid for; is not a disincentive to work; and ought to be viewed as a public investment with a high rate of return."

    "The child tax credit must become permanent. And refundable."
    Washington Post (September 16, 2021)

  • "Criminal justice reform is not just about being fair to the individuals who will be most directly affected, but it’s also about doing what’s right for our nation’s well-being."

    "The Smart Way to Help Ex-Convicts, and Society,"
    New York Times (June 3, 2016)

  • "People in prison are part of America, as are those who have been released. They are part of our society. And we have a powerful stake in their success."

    "The Smart Way to Help Ex-Convicts, and Society,"
    New York Times (June 3, 2016)

  • "To close great and growing wealth and income gaps, and to raise badly needed revenue for public investment, it’s not enough to lift the bottom up; we need to ask more of those at the top, too."

    "Democrats, if We Remain Divided, We’ll Fall,"
    New York Times (March 2, 2020)

  • "We do not face a choice between protecting our environment or protecting our economy. We face a choice between protecting our economy by protecting our environment — or allowing environmental havoc to create economic havoc."

    "How ignoring climate change could sink the U.S. economy,"
    Washington Post (July 24, 2014)

  • "While the FMLA [Family and Medical Leave Act] was a landmark achievement, it doesn’t go far enough. American workers and businesses need a universal paid leave program."

    "America needs a universal paid leave program,"
    Washington Post (February 22, 2018)

Robert Rubin speaks with Ashley Swearengin, mayor of Fresno, California, at a Hamilton Project event in Washington, DC, on October 13, 2010. Credit: Ralph Alswang/The Hamilton Project

Robert Rubin speaks with Ashley Swearengin, mayor of Fresno, California, at a Hamilton Project event in Washington, DC, on October 13, 2010. Credit: Ralph Alswang/The Hamilton Project

Robert Rubin laughs with Maurice Jones, CEO of the Local Initiatives Support Corporation, where he serves as board chair, on April 23, 2019. Credit: Roey Yohei Studios

Robert Rubin laughs with Maurice Jones, CEO of the Local Initiatives Support Corporation, where he serves as board chair, on April 23, 2019. Credit: Roey Yohei Studios

Robert Rubin and future president Barack Obama, then a U.S. senator from Illinois, converse at a Hamilton Project event in Washington, DC, on April 5, 2006. Credit: Ralph Alswang/The Hamilton Project

Robert Rubin and future president Barack Obama, then a U.S. senator from Illinois, converse at a Hamilton Project event in Washington, DC, on April 5, 2006. Credit: Ralph Alswang/The Hamilton Project

Robert Rubin speaks at an event held by the Hamilton Project and the Washington Center for Equitable Growth in Washington, DC, on May 16, 2019. Credit: The Hamilton Project

Robert Rubin speaks at an event held by the Hamilton Project and the Washington Center for Equitable Growth in Washington, DC, on May 16, 2019. Credit: The Hamilton Project

Robert Rubin, accompanied by his wife, Judy, is sworn in as U.S. secretary of the Treasury in the Oval Office on January 10, 1995. Credit: The White House

Robert Rubin, accompanied by his wife, Judy, is sworn in as U.S. secretary of the Treasury in the Oval Office on January 10, 1995. Credit: The White House

Robert Rubin moderates a conversation with Kyriakos Mitsotakis, prime minister of Greece, at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York on September 23, 2022. Credit: Don Pollard/Council on Foreign Relations

Robert Rubin moderates a conversation with Kyriakos Mitsotakis, prime minister of Greece, at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York on September 23, 2022. Credit: Don Pollard/Council on Foreign Relations

New York senators Alfonse D'Amato and Daniel Patrick Moynihan introduce Robert Rubin for his confirmation hearing in the U.S. Senate on January 10, 1995. Credit: The White House

New York senators Alfonse D'Amato and Daniel Patrick Moynihan introduce Robert Rubin for his confirmation hearing in the U.S. Senate on January 10, 1995. Credit: The White House

Robert Rubin greets Aida Alvarez, administrator of the Small Business Administration, on May 24, 1999. Credit: U.S. Department of the Treasury

Robert Rubin greets Aida Alvarez, administrator of the Small Business Administration, on May 24, 1999. Credit: U.S. Department of the Treasury

Robert Rubin speaks during an event at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York on September 23, 2022. Credit: Don Pollard/Council on Foreign Relations

Robert Rubin speaks during an event at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York on September 23, 2022. Credit: Don Pollard/Council on Foreign Relations

Robert Rubin, serving as inaugural director of the White House National Economic Council, speaks with President Bill Clinton at Camp David in January 1993. Credit: The White House

Robert Rubin, serving as inaugural director of the White House National Economic Council, speaks with President Bill Clinton at Camp David in January 1993. Credit: The White House

Robert Rubin speaks with Paul Volcker, former chair of the Federal Reserve Board, at the Council on Foreign Relations in 2008. Credit: Melanie Einzig/Council on Foreign Relations

Robert Rubin speaks with Paul Volcker, former chair of the Federal Reserve Board, at the Council on Foreign Relations in 2008. Credit: Melanie Einzig/Council on Foreign Relations